Ukraine's capital Kiev over the last 24 hours has experienced some of
its worst violence since the former Soviet republic became an
independent nation in 1991.
At least 25 people have died and
dozens more have been seriously injured in ongoing clashes between
protesters who are seeking the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych
and security forces loyal to his government.
spoke with Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine expert at the Chatham House think
tank in London, in order to better understand the recent escalation in
deadly violence that is wracking this country of 45 million on Europe's
eastern flank.
The latest bout of violence ostensibly began after protesters
attacked police lines and set fires outside parliament following the
president's refusal Tuesday to vote on a law that would have reinstated
limits on his powers.
But there's more to it than that.
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WHY NOW?
"The
protesters were losing hope in this protracted struggle where they saw
no willingness on the side of President Yanukovych to really compromise.
So far, none of their demands have been really met. The president has
in fact done the opposite. He tried to install new laws, he put people
in jail, his government tortured activists and it has harassed people.
The protesters simply do not believe there can be any decent negotiation
from the president's side.
"On Tuesday, there were even thugs
that the government has hired who have been roaming the streets,
threatening civilians and shooting journalists in cars. Then they
started throwing stones at the protesters and in a way that started the
violence. So this particular escalation has been driven specifically by
the government."
HOW LONG WILL PROTESTERS STAY?
"We have seen a fresh
wave of people arriving Wednesday mostly from western Ukraine and they
are determined. Opinion polls are showing that 70% of them say they will
stay until needed and when they can see that the situation is starting
to be resolved. The political opposition is not refusing to negotiate
with the president but serious international mediation is needed."
WHAT CAN THE WORLD DO?
"The
European Union has always been saying it has the whole range of
political tools at its disposal. It's been withholding sanctions until
more violence, which has now happened. But sanctions will not change the
president's mind. It's the backers of his political party, those people
who are controlled by the financial groups and oligarchs, who are
members of parliament, they will ultimately need to form a new majority
to try to find a solution, paving the way for preliminary elections."
WHAT'S NEXT?
"It
will not turn into a civil war because those who are supporting the
government are not prepared to risk their lives. Those civilians that
are fighting with the police they are being paid to do so. Ukraine will
not split because there are not significant numbers of Ukrainians who
are supporting the use of violence against civilians. It will not turn
into people fighting with people. It is basically just civilians
fighting with the riot police."
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And what do the protesters want?
President
Yanukovych's unwillingness to enact constitutional reforms that would
limit his power is what is immediately behind the conflict's recent
deterioration. But the bigger picture is that tensions have soared as
Russia has said it is ready to resume providing loans that President
Yanukovych's government needs to keep Ukraine's ailing economy afloat.
Protesters in Kiev would prefer to form an alliance with the European
Union. There also are fears among the opposition that the president is
ready to choose a Russian-leaning loyalist to be his new prime minister.
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